The first sign of the decay of Facebook at its’ height ?

Facebook becomes mainstream

Facebook is the leader of social networking space in numbers and popularity as it just reached half a billion users according to Mark Zuckerberg.
However there is a first sign of decay: according to this report on the latest study from eMarketer many teens are moving on from Facebook as they have lost interest or find it boring.

Facebook teens less using
Although Facebook has reached unprecedented highs in number of users the future could be under siege as their original population is starting to leave.
This seems somewhat logical: Facebook has become mainstream:
- Mentions on broadcast channels: TV and radio
- Their parents are on Facebook
- The movie The social network.
Hence Facebook is no longer cool.

If this decline of youngster proves to be true, then in the long run the popularity of Facebook will start to decrease.

The Innovation adoption curve

This has happened many times before with many products and services as defined by Everett M. Rogers in his innovation adoption curve.
Examples on the Internet: eBay, MySpace,…
Examples in real life: DVD players, iPod, Plasma TV sets,…
First the innovators (2.5% of the population) leave before the thing becomes widely used or spread leave as they are always moving on to the next thing searching new experiences at whatever risk or cost.
Then by the time a product or service becomes mainstream and commerce (advertising – merchandising) takes over from the original initiative the early adopters (13.5%) quit.

They are soon followed by the early majority (34%) as they have noticed the early adopters are already onto something new and different.

Of course it will take long before the late majority (34%) and the laggards (16%) will leave.

Will this happen with Facebook? Probably but it can take log as the Internet spans the entire world.
Can this happen with your products ? Probably but at a different (slower) pace as you are in business to business. Still monitor your early adopters as they will indicate the first sign of beginning of the end.

On the other hand there is the Valley of Mediocre between the Land of Free and Premium Highland which flips the Bell curve of Rogers.

Any idea where your products are on the innovation adoption curve ?

 

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